Goldman Sachs Research suggests that generative artificial intelligence (AI) could prove to be a game-changer in the global economy, driving an increase in global GDP by 7% and boosting productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a decade1. This transformative potential, however, is not without its challenges, particularly in the realm of employment markets.
As AI systems become more sophisticated, it is anticipated that approximately 300 million full-time jobs could be exposed to automation2. This exposure is not uniform across all sectors or occupations. In the United States, an estimated two-thirds of occupations are subject to some degree of automation, with up to half of the workload potentially replaceable by AI systems3. Nevertheless, the report stresses that most jobs are likely to be complemented, rather than substituted, by AI technologies.
Historically, job displacement due to automation has been counterbalanced by the creation of new occupations. Technological innovations have been the primary driver of long-term employment growth, with new job roles emerging as a direct result of advancements in areas such as information technology4. In turn, these new roles have had knock-on effects on other sectors, creating additional employment opportunities in healthcare, education, and food services[^5^].
A study by economist David Autor highlights the significant impact of technology-driven job creation, revealing that 60% of current workers are employed in occupations that did not exist in 1940[^6^]. This finding underscores the fact that over 85% of employment growth in the past 80 years can be attributed to the emergence of new positions due to technological advancements[^7^].
While it is true that AI has the potential to disrupt existing job markets, the historical precedent of technology-driven job creation should not be overlooked. As AI systems become more prevalent, there will be new opportunities for workers to adapt and transition into newly-created roles. It is crucial, however, that society and governments prepare for these changes by investing in education and skills development initiatives to ensure that the workforce is ready to embrace the AI revolution[^8^].
Moreover, there are potential benefits to the widespread adoption of AI systems beyond economic growth and productivity gains. For example, AI-driven automation could free up human workers to focus on more creative and complex tasks, thereby enhancing overall job satisfaction and increasing the quality of work[^9^].
In conclusion, the rise of generative AI has the potential to significantly shape the global economy and the future of work. While challenges exist, particularly concerning job displacement, the history of technology-driven job creation offers a reason for optimism. By investing in education and skills development, society can ensure that the workforce is well-equipped to adapt to the AI revolution and harness its potential for economic growth and productivity gains.